Unpacking The Triple Axis: Iran, Russia, And China's Strategic Dance

Creola Hoeger 21 Jun 2025

In an increasingly multipolar world, the geopolitical landscape is constantly shifting, with new alliances and power blocs emerging to challenge established norms. Among the most significant of these evolving relationships is the so-called "triple axis" between Iran, Russia, and China. This alignment, though complex and often misunderstood, represents a concerted effort by these nations to reshape the global order, pushing back against what they perceive as Western dominance and forging a new path for their collective interests.

Understanding the substance of this burgeoning alliance requires a deep dive into its various dimensions. As explored in the comprehensive study by Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai, titled "Triple Axis: Iran’s Relations with Russia and China" (IB Tauris, 2018), this strategic alignment is not merely a transient phenomenon but a multifaceted partnership rooted in shared historical experiences, convergent geopolitical ambitions, and a collective rejection of Western liberal values. Their work, which was notably launched at the VCDNP on July 12, 2018, meticulously addresses the intricacies of this relationship across critical realms: energy, trade, and military security.

The Emergence of the Triple Axis: A New Global Dynamic
Historical Context: Understanding Each Nation's Lens
Energy: The Lifeblood of the Alliance
- Iran's Oil and Gas in a Sanctioned World
Trade: Economic Interdependence and Sanctions Evasion
- Bypassing Western Sanctions: New Trade Routes
Military Security: A United Front?
- Joint Drills and Arms Deals
The US Perspective: Characterizing Adversaries
Challenges and Fragmentation: Cracks in the Alliance?
- Divergent National Interests
Looking Ahead: The Future Trajectory of the Triple Axis

The Emergence of the Triple Axis: A New Global Dynamic

The concept of a "triple axis" involving Iran, Russia, and China has gained significant traction in recent years, particularly as global power dynamics continue to shift. This newly emerged China, Iran, and Russia axis has undeniably signaled uneasiness in the United States, which, in its turn, has characterized these three countries as adversaries and strategic competitors. Far from a mere coincidence, this alignment is a calculated response to a perceived unipolar world dominated by Western powers, particularly the United States. For Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing, the relative decline of Western economic hegemony is viewed not as a threat, but as a significant opportunity to assert their influence and carve out a more prominent role on the international stage.

The foundation of this cooperation is multifaceted, extending beyond mere geopolitical convenience. It encompasses a shared desire to resist external pressures, particularly sanctions and interventions, and to promote a more multipolar international system where their voices carry greater weight. The comprehensive study by Dina Esfandiary, a fellow at the Centre for Science and Security Studies, King's College London, and Dr. Ariane Tabatabai, Director of Curriculum and Visiting Assistant Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, provides an invaluable framework for understanding the intricacies of this triple axis. Their research meticulously details how these nations navigate their individual interests while fostering a collective front in key areas.

Historical Context: Understanding Each Nation's Lens

To truly grasp the motivations behind the triple axis, it is crucial to understand that Iran, Russia, and China each view the global structure through the prism of historical experience. Their unique pasts have shaped their current foreign policy objectives and their skepticism towards Western liberal values and institutions. This shared rejection of the universality of Western liberal values is a powerful unifying factor, leading these states and their governments to each consider the relative decline of Western economic hegemony as an opportunity rather than a challenge.

Iran: Decades of Western sanctions, regime change attempts, and a history of foreign interference have instilled in Iran a deep-seated distrust of Western powers. Its revolutionary ideology emphasizes self-reliance and resistance, making it naturally inclined towards partnerships that offer alternatives to Western-dominated systems.
Russia: Russia's historical experience is marked by periods of both cooperation and intense rivalry with the West. Post-Cold War expansion of NATO, perceived encirclement, and sanctions over actions in Ukraine have fueled a desire to reassert its sphere of influence and challenge the existing security architecture. Russia sees opportunities in strengthening ties with non-Western powers to balance global power.
China: China's "century of humiliation" and its rapid economic rise have shaped a foreign policy focused on national rejuvenation and avoiding external interference. While economically intertwined with the West, Beijing seeks to establish a global order that is more aligned with its authoritarian model and less susceptible to Western pressures, particularly on issues like human rights and territorial disputes.

These distinct yet converging historical narratives provide a robust ideological underpinning for the triple axis, fostering a sense of solidarity against perceived external threats and a shared vision for a more diverse global order.

Energy: The Lifeblood of the Alliance

One of the most critical realms where the triple axis demonstrates its substance is energy. For Iran, a nation rich in oil and gas but heavily sanctioned by Western powers, Russia and China represent vital markets and partners for investment and technology. For Russia, a major energy producer itself, cooperation with Iran can involve coordinating production, pricing strategies, and pipeline routes, potentially impacting global energy markets. China, as the world's largest energy consumer, views both Iran and Russia as crucial suppliers for its insatiable demand, ensuring its energy security and diversifying its import sources away from potentially vulnerable sea lanes.

Iran's Oil and Gas in a Sanctioned World

Iran's vast hydrocarbon reserves are a cornerstone of its economy, but sanctions have severely hampered its ability to export oil and attract foreign investment. The triple axis offers a lifeline. China, in particular, has become Iran's largest oil customer, often purchasing Iranian crude at discounted rates, a practice that helps Iran circumvent Western sanctions. Russia, while a competitor in the global energy market, has also engaged in swap deals and technological cooperation with Iran, further solidifying energy ties within the axis. This cooperation helps Iran maintain its energy sector despite immense international pressure, demonstrating the practical benefits of the triple axis for Tehran.

Trade: Economic Interdependence and Sanctions Evasion

Beyond energy, trade forms another crucial pillar of the triple axis. The economic relationship between Iran, Russia, and China is not merely about exchanging goods; it's also about building alternative financial mechanisms and supply chains that can bypass Western-dominated systems. This is particularly vital for Iran, which has been largely cut off from the global financial system due to sanctions. The comprehensive study by Esfandiary and Tabatabai meticulously details how this 'triple axis' operates in the realms of energy, trade, and military security, highlighting the strategic importance of economic interdependence.

Bypassing Western Sanctions: New Trade Routes

For Iran, Russia, and China, the development of new trade routes and payment systems is paramount. China has invested heavily in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which includes infrastructure projects connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa. Iran, strategically located, plays a vital role in these land-based routes, offering an alternative to sea lanes vulnerable to Western interdiction. Russia, too, is keen on developing north-south corridors that link it to Iran and beyond, facilitating trade and reducing reliance on Western-controlled routes. This collective effort to establish parallel economic structures allows these nations to conduct trade, investment, and financial transactions outside the purview of Western sanctions, thereby undermining their effectiveness. The volume of trade between these countries, while difficult to ascertain precisely due to opaque reporting, is significant and growing, reflecting a deliberate strategy to build economic resilience against external pressures.

Military Security: A United Front?

Perhaps the most visible and concerning aspect of the triple axis for Western powers is the deepening cooperation in military security. This includes arms sales, joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and coordination on regional security issues. The comprehensive study by Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai specifically addresses the substance of this 'triple axis' in the realms of energy, trade, and military security, emphasizing its strategic implications. The security pact signed between Russia and Iran, highlighted by Moscow's warning of a catastrophe if Israel continues to strike nuclear sites in Iran, underscores Russia's concern over the fate of its ally and the growing military alignment.

Joint Drills and Arms Deals

Joint naval drills in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman have become increasingly common, signaling a growing interoperability and a desire to project collective power. These exercises, often involving anti-piracy or search-and-rescue scenarios, also serve as a platform for strategic signaling to the international community. Russia has been a key supplier of advanced military hardware to Iran, including air defense systems, which significantly enhance Iran's defensive capabilities. China, while more cautious in direct arms sales to Iran, engages in intelligence sharing and technological cooperation, particularly in areas like cyber warfare and drone technology. This military coordination within the triple axis aims to create a more robust security architecture that can deter potential adversaries and respond to regional crises without relying on Western intervention. The implicit support from Moscow for Iran, especially concerning its nuclear facilities, showcases a deeper strategic bond than previously acknowledged, solidifying the military dimension of the triple axis.

The US Perspective: Characterizing Adversaries

The emergence of the China, Iran, and Russia axis has undeniably signaled uneasiness in the United States. From Washington's vantage point, this alignment represents a direct challenge to its global leadership and the liberal international order it champions. The U.S. has consistently characterized these three countries as adversaries and strategic competitors, viewing their cooperation as a threat to regional stability and global security. This perspective is rooted in several concerns:

Challenge to Sanctions Regimes: The U.S. relies heavily on sanctions as a foreign policy tool. The triple axis's efforts to create alternative trade and financial mechanisms directly undermine the effectiveness of these sanctions, particularly against Iran and Russia.
Regional Instability: U.S. policymakers view Iran's regional actions (e.g., support for proxies, nuclear program) and Russia's assertiveness (e.g., in Ukraine, Syria) as destabilizing. The cooperation between these powers is seen as exacerbating these issues.
Erosion of Democratic Values: All three nations are authoritarian states that reject Western liberal democratic values. Their cooperation is perceived as strengthening a global bloc that opposes democracy and human rights.
Military Threat: Joint military exercises and arms sales are seen as a direct threat to U.S. interests and its allies in critical regions like the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific.

The U.S. response has typically involved a combination of sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and strengthening alliances with partners in the respective regions. However, the growing cohesion within the triple axis suggests that these traditional approaches may need re-evaluation as the nature of global power politics evolves.

Challenges and Fragmentation: Cracks in the Alliance?

Despite the undeniable strategic convergence, cooperation between Iran, Russia, and China remains fragmentary. As highlighted by Esfandiary and Tabatabai, while there are significant areas of overlap and mutual benefit, the triple axis is not a monolithic bloc. Each nation has its own distinct national interests, historical grievances, and geopolitical priorities that can, at times, lead to friction or limit the depth of their cooperation. The idea that this is a perfectly harmonious alliance would be a misinterpretation of the complex realities on the ground.

Divergent National Interests

While all three nations share a desire to counter Western hegemony, their specific goals can differ. For instance:

Competition in Energy Markets: Russia and Iran are both major oil and gas exporters. While they can coordinate on certain aspects, they are also competitors in the global energy market, especially when it comes to European and Asian customers.
China's Economic Pragmatism: China's primary driver is economic growth and stability. While it supports Iran and Russia politically, it is also careful not to jeopardize its vast economic ties with Western nations. This often means a more cautious approach to direct confrontation with the U.S. and Europe.
Regional Ambitions: In regions like Central Asia or the Caucasus, Russia and China have historically had their own spheres of influence. While cooperation exists, there can be underlying competition for economic and political leverage. Iran also has its own regional ambitions in the Middle East that sometimes diverge from Moscow's or Beijing's.
Trust Deficit: Despite growing cooperation, historical suspicions and differing political systems can sometimes lead to a trust deficit, preventing a deeper, more integrated alliance akin to traditional military blocs.

These inherent challenges mean that the triple axis, while potent, is characterized by a degree of pragmatism and transactionalism rather than a deep ideological bond. The extent of their cooperation is often dictated by immediate strategic needs and the level of pressure from external actors. Therefore, while they present a united front on many issues, their individual national interests ultimately dictate the boundaries of their collective action.

Looking Ahead: The Future Trajectory of the Triple Axis

The triple axis of Iran, Russia, and China is undoubtedly a significant feature of the contemporary international system. Its evolution will continue to shape global geopolitics, particularly in the realms of energy, trade, and military security. The comprehensive research by Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai, as presented in their seminal work "Iran’s Relations with Russia and China," provides a crucial foundation for understanding this dynamic. Their insights into the motivations, mechanisms, and limitations of this alliance remain highly relevant as the world navigates an increasingly complex and multipolar environment.

Moving forward, several factors will influence the trajectory of this triple axis:

Western Policies: The nature of Western sanctions, diplomatic engagement, and military postures will heavily influence the cohesion and direction of the triple axis. Continued pressure may push them closer, while a more nuanced approach could exploit existing fragmentations.
Internal Stability: The domestic political and economic stability of each nation will impact their ability to project power and maintain their strategic partnerships.
Regional Developments: Crises in the Middle East, Central Asia, or the Indo-Pacific could either solidify the alliance through shared threats or expose its weaknesses due to divergent interests.
Economic Realities: The global economic climate, particularly energy prices and trade flows, will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the economic dimension of the triple axis.

Ultimately, the triple axis represents a strategic response to a changing world order, driven by a desire for greater autonomy and a rejection of a unipolar global structure. While cooperation between them remains fragmentary in certain aspects, their shared vision for a multipolar world ensures that Iran's relations with Russia and China will continue to be a focal point for international analysis and policy-making for years to come. The scholarly work of experts like Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai provides an indispensable guide to navigating this intricate and evolving geopolitical landscape.

What are your thoughts on the long-term implications of this triple axis? Do you believe it will solidify into a formal bloc or remain a pragmatic, issue-based alignment? Share your insights in the comments below, or explore more of our articles on evolving global power dynamics.

China and Russia Honor WWII Relations - The New York Times

Why China and Russia Are Closer Than Ever - The New York Times

Russia Gets Closer to Iran - The New York Times

The Fame Scene

Unpacking The Triple Axis: Iran, Russia, And China's Strategic Dance

Table of Contents